Description: This paper uses a Bayesian approach to persistency to explore retirement cost projection variability. The analysis is divided into two parts. In the first part a subjective population projection model is developed, based on a beta-binomial distribution for the number of participants persisting through a given age. Probability statements regarding such items as the number of participants at a given age and the distribution of retirees are developed. The second part shows how the model might be used to generate confidence intervals for retirement cost projections. Both the single-entry-age case and the multiple-entry-age case are considered. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1979, Vol. 31.

Description: The abstract for a paper that describes the history of traditional topics like actuarial cost methods and assumptions, the history of past inquiries into the dynamic and stochastic nature of pension costs, and the perceptions and concerns of pension actuaries of the past. Presented at The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure symposium held July 14-15, 2005 in Washington, DC.

Description: This paper presents a history of traditional topics like actuarial cost methods and assumptions, the history of past inquiries into the dynamic and stochastic nature of pension costs, and the perceptions and concerns of pension actuaries of the past. From The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure Monograph, M-RS05-1.

Description: This 1978 session focused on valuation techniques for pension plans. Topics covered: 1. Asset Valuation Methods 2. Use of projections and forecasts 3. Has application of forecasts allowed the actuary to determine short range best estimate of future costs different from traditional methods? 4. Treatment of salary scales, turnover assumptions, retirement decrements

Description: This paper investigates a fundamental approach to the development of the expected cost of vesting in pension plans. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1972, Vol. 24, Pt. 1, No. 70.

Description: This article uses a Bayesian approach to persistency to explore pension cost projection variability. The analysis includes the specifications of the model and how the model might be used to generate confidence intervals for pension cost projections.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to discuss modified cost methods that have been proposed for small-plan valuations, The first portion of the paper deals with criteria for choosing a cost method. The next portions deal with small-plan characteristics and the potential shortcomings of conventional cost methods when applied to these plans. The final portion discusses two classes of modified cost methods that have been proposed for circumventing these shortcomings. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1983, Vol. 35.

Description: This paper attempts to reduce several variables to their bare minimum and to investigate how the cost of vesting depends upon those few that remain. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1972, Vol. 24, Pt. 1, No. 70.

Description: A mathematical framework for benefits and choices must be created to model benefit selection. This paper creates such a framework by defining benefit plans as reimbursement functions. These are then used with a defined choice function to calculate the cost deviation due to selection. Finally, utility functions can be applied to this framework to predict choice.